I have to confess. I didn’t watch much of the presentation that Trump’s defense lawyers put forth yesterday. I tried and did tune in a few times but every time I heard what was being said I had such a visceral reaction that I just couldn’t watch and changed the channel or turned the TV off and did something else. It was almost like re-watching the defense attorneys during the O.J. Simpson trial (although Simpson’s attorneys were certainly better than the team Trump was able to cobble together).
I think it is a pretty solid bet that Trump will be acquitted so the real question will be, “Where do we go from here?” There are a couple of things that are certain. First of all, Trump’s legal problems are far from over. There are the ongoing investigations by the State of New York, by the Feds at the Southern District of NY office, and most recently, the investigation by the Georgia AG into Trump’s attempts to overturn the election in that state. Additionally, there is the ongoing defamation suit brought by Stormy Daniels. Trump will no doubt be able to spend copious amounts of time with his attorneys in the weeks and months ahead. And he is not doubt very thankful for all of those Trumpsters who contributed their hard-earned money to his leadership PAC so he can use the OPM (Other Peoples Money) funds to pay his legal bills.
The other thing that is certain is that there is a huge fracture in the Republican Party right now. There is the Trump faction, but there are also those in the party who are done with Trump and would like nothing more than to see him confined to the golf course at Mar a Lago. The latest high-profile Republican to jump off of the Trump train is Nikki Haley, Trump’s former UN Ambassador. She apparently has her eye on a White House run in 2024 and clearly broke with Trump in a recent interview. “We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she told Politico magazine in an interview published Friday. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”1
There is no doubt that the rift in the Republican Party will play significantly in the 2022 mid-term elections. There are 34 senate seats up for re-election in 2022; 20 of those are Republican seats and 14 are Democratic seats. In addition, after the January 6 insurrection at the capital, there appears to be an exodus from the Republican party.2 There is also the fact that a majority of Americans believe Trump bears responsibility for the Capital riot.3 If you factor all of this into the political calculus machine, it seems like hanging the party’s proverbial hat on Trump going forward would be a pretty risky move.
The Trump faction of the party is certainly aware of this which would explain the 100+ pieces of legislation that are percolating through various state legislatures to restrict voting in the next election. The non-Trump faction is also aware of this which is why they would like to distance themselves from Trump. It will be a fight. Once Trump is acquitted and he and his enablers embark on the USS Revenge, it could likely turn into an all-out war for control of the party. It will be interesting to watch.
I think there is very little chance that Trump will actually mount another bid for the White House in 2024. I think given his age, his health, his other legal problems Iall o think the odds are against it. If that is true. then in addition to the intraparty fight that is likely to take place to determine the actual direction of the party – more toward right-wing, QAnon nonsense or back to actual Conservative principles – there will be a fight to determine which one of Trump’s acolytes will win the favor and loyalty of the Trump base. We know that Ted Cruz has his eye on the White House. Mike Pompeo has similar aspirations. Or, who knows, maybe even Josh Hawley wants to takeover and see if he can ‘out Trump’ Trump.
It is hard to imagine a scenario in which an acquittal of Trump coupled with the sure-to-follow internecine war in the Republican Party will actually benefit the party in the 2022 and 2024 elections. However, now that the precedent has been set, for any Republicans who lose elections in 2022 or 2024, you can rest assured that those elections will have been ‘rigged’, there was ‘voter fraud’, and the Proud Boys and others will be standing by to rectify the situation. Unfortunately, by failing to hold Trump to account for ‘The Big Lie’ and the resulting insurrection at the capital, it is highly likely that we will see more of the same in the future. That is why I suspect the ammunition shortage in this country is likely to last at least another four years. FrankenTrump on the loose and the Proud Boys stocked to the hilt with ammunition. No doubt that will help everyone sleep soundly tonight as they drift off to sleep thinking about ‘life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”!
Since the Tea Party I have seen a loss of character in the Republican Party. That slippery slope ended up with an insurrection. It has really opened my eyes to see how many people have leaned to the sociopathic side of reasoning. I believe our country’s racial bigotry has been simmering since the beginning of our country and it exploded when Barack Obama became President. The Republican Party became the Trump White Supremist Party. There has been talk of splitting the Republican Party to a third party for this very reason. This might be a good thing since so many Republicans are fed up with what has happened.