As I wait to join the great ‘vaccine scramble’, I got to thinking about the state of COVID these days as I read more and more articles about states (like Montana) lifting mask mandates and allowing bars and restaurants to operate at full capacity. The bottom line is, I think we’ve all gotten numb or jaded or both. The coronavirus case count and death toll used to be daily fare in prime-time newscasts. There are still occasional mentions but not with the urgency or frequency that we had become used to. Now that the number of cases in the US has surpassed 29 million and the death toll has passed 530,000 people I guess, in some respects, the numbers have become almost meaningless. You would think that we are out of the woods as far as the pandemic is concerned. That would probably be a mistake.
It’s true that vaccinations are picking up steam and case counts are dropping in some areas. However, there are other forces at work that could throw a monkey wrench in all of this. In a previous post, I talked about the simple probabilities associated with virus replication and the creation of variants. Basically, the more times a virus replicates, i.e., the more cases there are, the higher the probability that a variant will emerge. When a variant emerges, there is no guarantee that a vaccine that works against one variant will work as effectively against another variant. Which is why every year when you get a flu shot, it is not 100% effective.
We are already aware of variants of the COVID virus. There is the UK variant. There is the South African variant. There is the Brazilian variant. And now, there appears to be a new variant that is ‘home grown’ right here in Oregon.1 And this particular variant has health professionals concerned. It appears to have traits similar to the UK variant which makes it more contagious. And it appears to have traits similar to the South African variant which makes it more resistant to existing vaccines. Wonderful.
The UK variant, designated B.1.1.7, is in the United States and is spreading rapidly. It is more contagious and more deadly than the original ‘vanilla’ COVID virus and is expected to account for most infections in the US in a few weeks. And this just as many states are easing restrictions and people are gathering in large groups. The thing that many people don’t seem to understand is that one of the keys to getting this monster under control is to stop it or slow it from spreading. If we have a vaccine and a variant develops that is resistant to that vaccine, we are right back where we started.
I came across a study that someone at Princeton conducted looking at the number of COVID cases broken down by red states vs blue states for 2020. The analysis clearly showed that red states had a higher per capita case rate and the death rate in the red states was also higher although not as dramatic as the number of cases. This is clearly the result of Republican governors not abiding by CDC guidelines. And now, here we go again.
We were first stuck in a situation with a president who dismissed the severity of the pandemic. And then we had a bunch of governors who were slow to implement CDC public guidelines designed to slow the spread to the virus. The result – 530,000 fatalities – many which didn’t have to happen. And now we are on the verge of creating the perfect recipe for propagating highly contagious variants of this virus because once again, Republican governors are ignoring CDC public guidelines and easing restrictions.
Given the highly contagious nature of the B.1.1.7 variant now in the US, it is virtually a 100% probability that the case load will spike upward in the next few weeks. More than likely, the death rate will increase as well. And if this new home-grown variant identified in Oregon takes root and begins to spread widely, who knows what will happen.
Sure, we’re all tired of COVID. We all would like to return to some semblance of normalcy. Virtually all public health officials have said if we can just hang on for another couple of months and continue to wear masks, practice social distancing and allow time to get more people vaccinated we will be in a far better place. Unfortunately, the anti-science, Republican governors are making decisions that will set this effort back. As I read in an article yesterday, you don’t declare victory in the third quarter. There is no doubt this virus is going to play hard for all four quarters. It is a formidable foe and it is far too early to declare victory. But, alas, politics and money will once again lead to decisions that continue to put American lives at risk.
I truly hope we don’t become so jaded about the 530,000 people that have already died or those that will die in the future due to these irresponsible decisions that we just view them as expendable and simply ‘the cost of doing business.’
Today, Carol and I are getting our second vaccination. Hopefully, in two weeks we can hug our grandchildren again.
Survival of the fittest usually rules in nature and the most cautious animals live in this life or death struggle to see another day. Not so with humans. The most reckless and ignorant humans make really stupid decisions that endangers all of us. It is sad that the most cautious end up dying and the reckless and ignorant ones live.