The coronavirus continues to make headlines around the world – most of them not good. However, if you look at what’s going on in some parts of this country, you’d think that everything is all rosy. Several states are lifting restrictions and eliminating mask mandates in spite of warnings by virtually of the public health officials. Vaccines are being distributed, albeit somewhat inconsistently across the country. [I know from personal experience here in Montana, there are major differences between the way Yellowstone County (Billings) are doing their vaccinations and Gallatin County (Bozeman) are doing theirs. Yellowstone County has vaccinated over twice as many people to date – go figure] However, if you step back and look at what is going on in the rest of the world, it is not a very pretty picture across all kinds of dimensions. And given the stupidity of Republican governors across the country who are continuing to ignore public health officials, we are likely in for some rocky weeks and months ahead. One just has to look across the pond to what is going on in Europe.
First of all, there has been a major resurgence in a number of countries in Europe. Italy is actually shutting down again.1 A year ago, they were one of the first countries to lockdown their country and they are now entering their third wave of this virus. These resurgences are due primarily to the more contagious variants that have emerged in the past year coupled with a relaxation of public health measures. A third wave is hitting Germany and Hungary. France has the highest level of hospitalizations since November and is considering another lock down.
Health officials in this country are very concerned that we, just like happened in Europe, are letting our guard down to quickly and are going to cause ourselves more pain. One just has to look at what is going on in all of the ‘spring break’ towns. Thousands of people, mostly unmasked, partying up a storm. Air travel is at its highest level since the pandemic started. And the percentage of Americans who have been vaccinated is no where near that required for herd immunity. So, if what is going on in Europe is any indication of things to come – buckle up and keep that mask handy! I wonder how many American lives this round of stupidity will cost?
Of course, the situation in the US hasn’t been complicated by the problems that Europe is having with the Astra-Zeneca vaccine. A number of countries have stopped using the vaccine due to reports of brain hemorrhages and blood clots. 2 Astra-Zeneca has defended their vaccine and said that the number of occurrences of these types of problems was no different than as would be found in an unvaccinated population. For example, Germany reported 7 cases of a rare cerebral thrombosis out of 1.6 million people vaccinated. Many public health officials are arguing that the data just do not support the suspension of the Astra-Zeneca vaccine but, then again, when did facts and data ever triumph in the realm of emotion and politics?
The other major fallout from this issue is that it will give the ‘anti-vaxers’ ammunition to argue against mass vaccines regardless of how safe the vaccine is ultimately determined to be. It’s kind of like the people who refuse to let go of the supposed connection between vaccinations and autism, which has been widely debunked in many, many studies. Nonetheless, it will add a serious complication to the Covid waves currently sweeping Europe.
Brazil is also seeing a huge resurgence of the virus. They are another country that ignored public health guidance and a new much more contagious variant is sweeping the country. Additionally, they are in desperate need of vaccines. This is where the geo-politics of the pandemic get really interesting. Brazil is embarking on an effort to build one of the world’s largest 5G networks. The Trump administration put a lot of pressure on Brazil to not use Huawei, China’s telecommunications giant, as part of this plan. And Brazil had agreed. Huawei was essentially shut out. And then two things happened, the pandemic hit and Trump left office.
It just so happens that China is manufacturing millions of doses of its vaccine and is willing to export those to other countries. “Beijing’s ability to mass-produce vaccines and ship them to countries in the developing world — while rich countries, including the United States, are hoarding many millions of doses for themselves — has offered a diplomatic and public relations opening that China has readily seized”.3 I described in an earlier post how China is playing a masterful game of ‘Go’ on the global game board and this is yet another example. Now, in a sudden change of heart, Brazil has invited Huawei to be part of their 5G network and, in exchange, they are getting millions of doses of vaccine from China. The fact is, China is currently exporting vaccines to 22 different countries and that list is likely to expand.
If our European friends can’t solve the Astra-Zeneca problem in short order I wonder if they might turn to China as another vaccine source. It’s highly unlikely they will be able to turn to the US. A few years ago, the world would have turned to the United States when there was a world-wide crisis like this. Since we are now so far behind the power curve and are playing catch up, it looks like the world is turning elsewhere. After all, the US has more cases and more deaths from COVID than any other country in the world – why the hell would anyone listen to us? China, on the other hand, has the virus fairly well under control and is in a position to be able to export millions of doses of vaccine to other countries.
There is no doubt that this pandemic has altered the entire global political landscape. The Trump administration began this effort which resulted in the US ceding its leadership role on the world stage. Unless the Biden administration can rapidly rebuild our international alliances and standing, China will continue to capitalize on every opening we give them. China is not necessarily winning the global game of ‘Go’ – it’s just that the US is losing due to the lack of its ability to implement a long-term strategic vision hampered even more by the internal polarization of our political landscape.
I read an interesting article in The Atlantic over the weekend, “No, Really Are We Rome?” with the subtitle, “The sack of the Capitol was thwarted. But history suggests that corrosive change can be hard to see while it’s happening.” I would argue this country is in far more danger than most of us would like to admit. But, what the hell, it’s spring break – party on!
- Italy imposes lockdown measures as cases spike across Europe. – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
- AstraZeneca Concerns Throw Europe’s Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Into Deeper Disarray – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
- Brazil Needs Coronavirus Vaccines. China Is Benefiting. – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
- “No, Really Are We Rome?”, The Atlantic, April 2021, pg.22-24
The Trump stupidity virus will probably cause additional deaths to the Corona virus fatalities. It was reported on Fox News that 47% of men who supported Trump refuse to get the vaccination. Trump got vaccinated in January but refuses to join all the other Presidents in a campaign to encourage people to get vaccinated.