The primary election is over here in Montana and there aren’t really any major surprises. I guess the biggest ‘surprise’, if you will, is the fact that former Secretary of the Interior under Trump, Ryan Zinke, who was forced from office after a slew of ethics investigations is in a race that is too close to call at the moment. Of course, his opponent is another Trump acolyte, so for my money, it really doesn’t matter which of them ultimately wins. I was happy that the Democratic candidate that I voted for, Monica Tramel, won and will face the winner of the Zinke race in November. I was also pleased to find out that our HOA attorney, Alanah Griffith, won the Democractic nomination for her district for the Montana State legislature. The real question is whether or not any Democrat stands a snowball’s chance in hell of winning any election in Montana given the increasing crimson color of the state.
Regardless of what happens in the primaries right now, the Democrats face a very steep hill in order to retain control of both the House and the Senate. One would think that the potential decision by the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade, the recent and ongoing spate of mass shootings, and the continuing shocking findings coming from the Jan. 6th committee, would be enough to mobilize voters to ensure this doesn’t happen.
Poll after poll shows that the majority of Americans are not in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade, but one of the primary planks in most Republican campaigns is a promise to overturn Roe v. Wade and ban abortion. The majority of American want stricter gun laws. The Republicans continually block any action on gun laws. Most Americans want to know the truth about what happened on Jan. 6th and yet, most Republicans either continue to propagate ‘The Big Lie’ or just remain silent about the attempted coup in this country.
Why won’t this translate into votes for the Democrats in November? I think it’s something akin to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. If you recall, Maslow says that people satisfy their needs according to the following priorities:
- Physiological (food and clothing)
- Safety (job security)
- Love and belong needs (friendship)
- Esteem
- Self-actualization
It is virtually impossible to get people interested in things like ‘Esteem’ and ‘Self-actualization’ when they are struggling to put food on the table.
Unfortunately, given that inflation is at record high levels and gas prices show no sign of coming down any time soon, many Americans are focused on the very first tier of Maslow’s pyramid. When people are struggling to make ends meet or are seeing their retirement funds depleted due to these circumstances, it is very difficult to get people to focus on things like the ‘robustness of democracy.’
If you try to explain to people that this election in 2022 and, subsequently in 2024, are really about the future of democracy in this country, they will just look at you and say that while that may be true, they are focused on feeding their family. They only thing they know is that the current situation is not good, so they will be much more likely to vote for a change, even if they may not fully appreciate the consequence of that change.
The economy is making people desperate. Desperate people are vulnerable to being mislead and manipulated and often make decisions without thinking much about the long-term consequences. It is the perfect environment for the Republican ‘machine’ to swoop in and grab the reins by promising to fix everything. In a situation such as we are now in, the ‘promise’ is sufficient even if there is absolutely no substance or concrete plans behind that promise.
If, as expected, the Republicans retake control of the House and the Senate, and assuming the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, the happenings of the next two years are clearly predictable. Abortion will be banned in most Republican controlled states and there will be further assaults on things like LGBTQ rights and who knows what else. There will be NO action on any type of gun control. The Jan. 6th committee will be immediately disbanded and any ongoing investigations killed and buried. Virtually every action that Biden tries to take will be blocked, the same way Mitch McConnell obstructed Obama. Further, if there is any opening on the Supreme Court during the final two years of the Biden administration, any nominee offered up by Biden will be blocked, the same way Merrick Garland was never even granted a hearing. The United States will begin to look more and more like Hungary.
The current situation is the perfect environment to enable the gestation of an authoritarian regime as has been demonstrated repeatedly throughout history. But Maslow was right, as long as people are focused on the price of gas, it’s virtually impossible to get them to care about democracy – until it’s too late!